Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE)

News Archive

25/03/2010 The trouble continues. We apparently still have to do some trouble shooting, even though the information below still very much applies. I do apologise for this; and I urge you all to start slowly when the server starts behaving as it should. -Otherwise it will be flooded again again.


As you are probably aware, this archive has been having huge performance problems for a while. We now believe that we have found one reason, and this reason is one particular user. I will give some details below, not to place blame, but to inform you all how NOT to do.

Somebody, a Mac user probably from Italy, has been using a download manager called iGetter to access data files at This is of course OK. The problem is that this piece of software starts a number of parallel downloads. The setup of this user started a number so large that we hit the ceiling of the apache server here, basically excluding the rest of the world.

It is probably not this particular user and program who is responsible for all the downtime, but he/she certainly has been a major part of the cause this week. Please, all users, be aware that parallel downloads may give you better access time now; but you are in fact taking the bandwidth from other users. Next time you will be the one unable to get through. So, be nice!

The file has been replaced due to some errors (in one month).

The site has been down since yesterday due to an upgrade of the disk system. We are up again, but the restoration of the entire data archive is expected to last at least a week. We apologize for your inconvenience!

Two important updates: The special issue of Climatic Change (Vol. 81 2007) concerning the PRUDENCE project is now available. And, I have removed the participants-only data from this server. This means that just points to this page. If you REALLY need the data, and if you are allowed (you probably are not...), then write me a mail.

The missing ETH Psurf data have not been put into the archive.

The DMI 12km daily data are now online. Recall that this is a standard PRUDENCE simulation with 4 times the resolution, using the Baltic SST's from the RCAO simulation. This means that this pair, F12/S12, corresponds to the HC1/HS4 simulation pair in 50km resolution. Note that each field is split into 3 decadal files with indices corresponding to the decade. Direct download from and DODS download from and correspondingly for S12.

An inconsistency in the SMHI files for t2min and t2max has been identified. The data in each field of these files belongs to the previous day (D-1) instead of the actual day (D). As a consequence t2m(D) (the daily mean temperature) is not always in the range [t2min(D),t2max(D)] which it should be.

A few updates: Some Hadley Centre manuscripts have been added to the publications list. Some corrupted orography/lsm files have been repaired. And most importantly: The accepted manuscripts for the special PRUDENCE issue of Climatic Change are now accessible here.

Erroneous coordinates in the HIRHAM scenario B2 data (HB1) have been corrected. The data were OK but pertained to the coordinates in the standard HIRHAM grid.

An error has been found in the HIRHAM Greenland data (ARA, ARB, and ARC) that are stored on this server, part of the Nordic project Climate and Energy. The evaporation fields were a factor of 3 too small. This has been corrected today. Sorry!

For the first time in a very long while there are new data at the site. A global atmospheric 25km run made by the Japanese Meteorological Research institute (MRI) has been put up in directories MRI_JMA. We have clcov, evap, radiation fluxes, MSLP, Psurf, q2m, snow, soilw and t2m for a control experiment and for 2071-2100 from an A1B scenario on the original grid in the database, over an area covering the PRUDENCE region of interest. Thanks!

After about a month of uploading files, the PRUDENCE site has been reopened after a disk crash on the old server. I believe that the files are OK now, but it is human to err. So, please,

Plots of the biases and climate signals have been made public and are available as follows: The organization of the plots is explained here.

Also climate change maps are present:

The Lund meeting 29/3-2/4 2004 now has a home page (at least I did not know about it till now...) with all presentations there for download.


I have received the following from Dave Rowell at the Hadley Centre:

As some of you will remember, Phil Graham found that the surface moisture budget did not balance in the Hadley Centre data submitted to the PRUDENCE archive. We have now finally made significant progress with resolving this problem, and have found that the daily surface runoff fields contain erroneous values. (The actual data in the archive is the sum of the surface and sub-surface runoff). We suspect that it may be due to a problem with the packing of the data, but are still investigating this. In any case, it is most unlikely that it will be possible to apply any kind of correction to these fields. However, there is some good news, which is that the problem does not affect other meaning periods, such as monthly means (these are made while the model runs, and not made from the archived daily data).

Therefore we must withdraw all daily runoff data in the PRUDENCE archive for all Hadley Centre models, including the monthly means that Ole has made from them. We will however submit in it's place the monthly mean runoff fields referred to above. We all at the Hadley Centre sincerely apologise for this, and acknowledge the inconvenience it will cause some of you.

We hope that the monthly mean data will be sufficient for all/many of you that require runoff? However, if the absence of reliable daily runoff data causes anyone major problems, please let us know.

The PRUDENCE final report has been finished and can be downloaded from here. Furthermore, in connection with the COP10 meeting, a document with country-by-country climate projections has been made by Jens.

Deliverable D5A4, The effect of global warming on heat waves and cold spells in the Mediterranean by Tom Holt and Jean Palutikof , is now available on this site.

One more data set has been added: The 50km DMI HIRHAM simulations driven by an ECHAM5 T106 experiments from ETHZ with the same SSTs as the PRUDENCE reference HadAM3H experiments.

As a supplement to the general presentation, another one focusing on extremes can be found here. This presentation, put together by David Stephenson and changed a bit by OBC was presented at the CAS-TWAS-WMO forum on extremes in Beijing, October 2004.

JHC's presentation of the project at the Buenos Aires COP10 meeting in November 2004 is now available.

Burkhardt Rockel has revised his sub-area definitions presented at the Toledo meeting.

At the DMI we have recently finished a PRUDENCE run in 12 km resolution, resulting in a 366x360 shaved grid. I have put the seasonal and monthly data (F12 and S12 are control and scenario, respectively) on the DODS server. Unfortunately there is no room for the daily data, which are around 5GB per experiment and field. Please contact me if you would like access to the daily data.

Some errors have been corrected in the ICTP land/sea mask, orography, and land use files.

Some errors have been corrected in the ICTP land/sea mask, orography, and land use files.

The formal end of the PRUDENCE project was October 31. The final report is under preparation and the project is expected to be finally completed by the end of the year.

The minutes of the final PRUDENCE meeting in Toledo have been updated.

I believe that the snow fields are now correct. Please inform me if there are still errors.

Our coordinator has collected a (public) resume of the final PRUDENCE meeting in Toledo.

The ever alert Erik Kjellström has discovered an inconsistency in units on the snow fields. I won't have time to correct this for a couple of weeks, I am afraid. At the moment DMI, ETH, UCM, and ICTP have units mm = kg/m^2, whereas SMHI, KNMI, GKSS, and MPI have m. So, be alert and multiply the latter by 1000.

We have received data from the Norwegian group,, and they are being uploaded at the moment: control and A2 are complete, B2 is on its way. Thanks!

Unfortunately it turns out DODS has a deficiency, so that it is not possible to have password-restricted DODS access to the affected data. You will have to do with direct download.

We are still working on the restricted DODS interface. Please have patience or use direct download...

We have set up a new virtual server called where the HC 3H data, which are only for PRUDENCE project participants, are residing. I have updated the relevant links, and I hope that you will report any errors. Note that the daily data are in the process of being uploaded and will not be complete until this evening.

Nice to see you all again! Most of the presentations from the Toledo meeting are now up for download on the private pages here

The agenda and abstracts have been updated once more.

The agenda and abstracts have been updated.

We have put up a preliminary agenda and a list of abstracts for the upcoming Toledo meeting. They will be updated shortly.

We are now opening the PRUDENCE data archive to the public (see the menu to the left). The process has not been finished yet, so you may encounter dead links etc., but it should not be serious.

Please remember to register for Toledo! And submit title and 10-line abstract to Jens before 30/8/04.

The 30-month management report is available for project participants.

David Rowell has written a HC technical report on RCM model-caused uncertainty. It can be downloaded from us or from the Hadley Centre

We have the first draft of the Toledo meeting agenda available.

A draft model description page has been put up here in the private pages. Please read it, comment upon it and mail me some improvements.

For your information we have the control, A2, and B2 greenhouse gas concentrations from the Hadley Centre here.

Do remember the final meeting of the PRUDENCE project in Toledo, Spain, 6-10/9/2004. There will be roughly one hour for presentations for each group. Call for abstracts will be out in June.
Please register for the conference with Prof. Manuel de Castro of the University o f Castilla-La Mancha and arrange accomodation through the associated travel agency (NB! Corrected mail address) (Francisca Martinez).

We have a new report, deliverable D1A5, written by Michel Déqué. Furthermore I have put the data analysis reports by Chris Ferro up (see here).

The page with reports and publications has been updated.

Members can now find the final 24-month progress report under "management"

Members can now find the 24-month progress report under "management"

Almost all PRUDENCE experiments are now in the data center. The timing table has been updated.

The updates on this site continue. The publication list is now public; the (internal) data description pages have been rearranged and updated; Tim Carter's table with links is online.

I am currently trying to introduce some much-needed revisions of the web site here. I have started with a revision of the area description page and some smaller things.

You can now find a summary of the 2003 project meeting in Wengen here. Participants can furthermore download the data exchange agreement with the Hadley Centre from this place in Microsoft Word format (sorry).

Most of the action lately is still documented in the DODS frontpage. All data are now without the relaxation zone! The area description page will be updated shortly. We have also now a piece of code from Michel Déqué for interpolating Arpege data to CRU.

An update of the data distribution center status can be found on the DODS frontpage. Monthly averages should start being generated in about a week.

The talks are now up for (password protected) download here -A few are missing, possibly mislaid by us. Please contact me.

Thank you all for a very good meeting in Wengen! At present just a warning: I will start changing attribute and variable names as well as lattices (removing relaxation points) in the data archive. Because of the large file sizes this will generally be done in place! I will rename a directory when starting the massage, but I have the suspicion that an ongoing download might just continue until it crashes. If this should happen, please reread the attributes of the file and download it again. Please follow the story on the DODS front page.

The MPI daily data are up. Note that these experiments are ERA-15 driven (3002) and the one without increased RCM GHG concentrations (3005). There seems to have been download errors in my version of the ETH daily files leading to 0-values in the end of some files. Please take care!

Several updates are on their way: Hadley Centre RCM output; MPI daily data for their ERA-driven simulation and the scenario simulation without GHG updates in the RCM; New GKSS data for scenario precip, evap, and runoff as well as control radiative fluxes; the 3rd HIRHAM control ensemble member HC3. The latter set is there, the rest needs some postprocessing and will therefore have to wait until after Wengen. We also have seasonal control data from KNMI now and updated seasonal control fields from UCM as well as updated ETH seasonal tmin/tmax fields!

Another error has appeared in my postprocessing of the ECHAM-driven ec... DMI experiments. They can be used if some care is taken: In all daily data sets the very last day of the experiment has all fields at 0. Furthermore I have found an error in the ecscA2 fields in several months up to month 1401: All last days of a month are off and should not be used. Updated data sets will be up after the meeting. -Sorry!

The ETH seasonal data have been updated.

The GKSS daily data have been updated.

Jens has also delivered climate change maps now. Look here to check them out.

The MPI have replaced the erroneous scenario data (3005) with a new experiment (3006). The seasonal data are up now; note that I may have messed up the temporal sequence in all the MPI seasonal fields, so please download all seasonal MPI fields again; sorry. The GKSS had errors in their calculation of daily max/min fields; new fields of t2max, t2min, and w10max are being uploaded today.

We have received seasonal data from ETH and ICTP (and, btw., the DMI HS2 daily files are coming up at the moment in an improved version). On the other hand the DMI ecctrl, ecscA2, and ecscB2 t2min and t2max fields were erroneous and cannot be recovered. I have requested native-grid orography and land-sea mask from the RCM groups and have received this necessary information from DMI (!), UCM, ETH, and GKSS at the moment. The files are located in the institute-specific subdirectories to the daily data, e.g. here.

Jens has made several comparison plots of the available seasonal data in pdf-format, which you are invited to have a look at (members only, of course). You can find temperature and precipitation bias; MSLP; T_min and T_max biases, and finally daily T-range. We are obviously approaching critical mass now.

Now also GKSS has delivered daily data. On the other hand I have discovered problems with the DMI HS2 files -please wait until there are new versions. MPI has delivered seasonal data for the rerun experiments. They should replace the older version.

We have also data from ETH now, as well as the second scenario expt. from DMI. So, the Prudence DODS archive is functional and larger than ever.

The new 18-month management report (PDF) and bulletin no. 4 have been put up. Note that the tentative placement of the final PRUDENCE meeting is 6-10/10/2004 in Toledo, Spain.

Many rumors have ciculated regarding the rerun of the global Hadley Centre experiments. We now have two documents, one from the Hadley Centre and one from Jens and Richard clarifying the issue. In summary, the old experiments will still be used, except that the HC ensemble data will be using their revised model, i.e., there will be one member available of the old ensemble plus three members of a new ensemble, both globalily and regionally.

The data archive is growing. The existing DMI and CNRM data have now been supplemented with daily data from SMHI and UCM.

These pages have now moved to This machine is the new Prudence data server. As soon as it is running I will let you know here.

Also David Stephenson has written minutes, from the WP5 meeting in Chateau d'Oex.

Jørgen Olesen has made minutes from the Copenhagen WP4 meeting as well as an overview of methods relevant for WP4.

Jens' poster from EGS 2003 is now available here

Please remember the Wengen meeting!! Its page is at this place

I also forgot to link to Chris Ferro's PRUDENCE page

Steady progress in data collection: We now have seasonal averages from DMI, CNRM, and MPI. Daily data are in from DMI and CNRM.

Further small changes in the netCDF headers due to changes in the CF conventions... Correct it if you are in time, otherwise let me do it.

The Power Point presentation by Dave Rowell about merged deliverables for WP1-2 discussed at the Hamburg meeting is now available here.

The seasonal averages and interanual standard deviations have arrived from CNRM. Most of the DMI files have been processed as well. Please look in this place for netCDF files and hear for a bit of technical discussion.

As mentioned in a mail already: There was an error in the latitude coordinate of the CRU lsm/orography file. So please make certain you don't shift your orography when interpolating to the CRU grid.

Alain Braun discovered even further inconsistencies in the netCDF headers. Please read thenetCDF header dump page. Reread the standard_names and the units. Again, if this is too late for your postprocessing, don't worry. I will convert the headers after I receive your data.

More errors in the netCDF header listing: I had mixed around the "units" attribute for some fields. The only non-obvious thing is that evaporation was listed as m/s, but I really want it in kg m-2. Sorry for any problems converting long wave radiation to kg/m^2...

I just discovered a new required attribute for the netCDF files. Put it in if you have not already started your postprocessing; otherwise let me insert it when I receive your data. See the netCDF header dump page

We are indeed growing. We now welcome the Charles University of Prague as associated with Prudence!

I have updated the area listing. It also includes the CRU area now and points to a netCDF file with orography and land-sea mask. This is the grid where all RCM groups should deliver interpolated seasonal and annual averages (see 9/12/02).

Tel-Aviv University has associated itself with PRUDENCE like the Norwegian and Dutch meteorologic institutes have done previously.

We forgot to also link to a report from the Hadley Centre, which we received in November. Link through this page

From CIRED-SMASH we have a report, deliverable D6A1, which are on the internal pages here.

I have put up a definition of a CRU grid to use for the GCM/RCM validation maps: [-14.74,34.75,35.25,74.75] 0.5x0.5 degrees, i.e., 100x80 points. Comments are welcome! As I remember it, we agreed on MSLP, precipitation, daily T_min and T_max and T_average for DJF, MAM, JJA, SON, and annually, i.e. 25 fields. I would prefer those as netCDF files in order for me to make plots that look the same.

Some minor glitches reported by the participants have been corrected (sorry); they were created during the upload.

As you may have noticed, the web pages have been restructured. We are now using frames; hopefully nobody nowadays are adversely affected by this. The project participants should have a look at the internal pages, in particular

Now the files really are OK (not yesterday yet, though...). Also please note that the time coordinate is in error: It claims to start on Jan 2, but does, of course, start on Jan 1.

NOTE that the first version of the test files have been WRONG as regards the 4 radiations, evap, snow, w10m, and w10dir. The new files should be OK, and have also been upgraded wrt. the format. But, UPM are suspicious about SWdown, so the whole story is not yet told.

Firstly, there are now data available from the first HIRHAM 30-year control simulation on DVD; contact OBC/DMI. Secondly, you might want to read a report by Richard Jones on their HadAM runs here.

We have a preliminary agenda of the Trieste PRUDENCE meeting here

Jens has written up a piece on our experiences with the Hadley cloud water corrections to theta. It is in the internal web area here.

We have started to construct an archive of PRUDENCE-relevant publications and presentations in the members-only area. The third PRUDENCE meeting has now been fixed at the week 29/9 - 3/10 2003!.

Jan-Erik Haugen has pointed out another further minor (?) error in the fortran code in the internal pages: nlon,nlat had been declared as 33,41 instead of 41,33 somewhere in readmf.f I hope very much that this has not caused errors for you.

Please remember the second PRUDENCE meeting, which is on the last 3 days of the Trieste meeting announced here, the full meeting dates are 30/9-4/10 2002. The third meeting will be in Wengen, Switzerland, Sep-Oct 2003. Finally the final meeting will be in Toledo, Spain, in early summer 2004.

We now have the report of the December workshop online as

Jens wrote an overview of the PRUDENCE project in EOS of 26/3. One unfortunate typing error was in the web address of this page, which was written as . We have now set up a redirection of such references to the correct address . Sorry for any inconvenience!

Prompted by the Trieste people I have corrected an obvious error in the fortran code regarding cloud-water correction of temperature.

14/2 2002:
I have put up some fortran extracted from the routines we use to read the Hadley tapes.

16/1 2002:
The PRUDENCE abstract for the EGS meeting can be seen here as a pdf file. A further newpaper article from the Danish paper Politiken is here. Otherwise things have been updated here and there.

Finally some privacy: We have set up a password protection of the private pages; the password has been mailed to the prudence mailing list.

The PRUDENCE project has been getting into the Danish media: The Danish Climate Centre newsletter and the newspaper Berlingske Tidende

We now have a summary of the kick-off meeting.

Updated description of the Hadley data by David Hassell, several updates to the list of participants, a couple of more talks for download.

We now have acual data on this site! A few data sets from the HadAM3H run has been put up for test purposes (follow the link through the internal page).

The address list has been redesigned; PLEASE supply logo and links.

Following the kick-off meeting a lot of things will be appearing here. The presently dead links below will illustrate what.

The very existence of these pages is considered a major news item.

This day the PRUDENCE project was officially started.

Co-ordinator Jens Hesselbjerg Christensen, DMI
Project manager and webmaster Ole Bøssing Christensen, DMI
Hosted at the Danish Meteorological Institute